Budget 2024-25: Wishlist long, plans falling short

Budget 2024-25: Wishlist long, plans falling short

2 minutes, 5 seconds Read

The budget is not about speeches. It is a statement on medium-term macroeconomic policy. This statement is one of the many documents related to the budget. It mentions various challenges faced by the economy, such as a strict monetary and expenditure contractionary policy is being followed, in the hope that this will reduce inflation in the near future. But the high interest rates prevailing in the market may slow down the pace of investment and this may impact GDP.

Another challenge is that the high interest rates prevailing in developed countries are affecting Bangladesh's dwindling foreign exchange reserves. If these high interest rates continue in developing countries, it will be difficult to recover Bangladesh's dwindling foreign exchange reserves in the future. Subsequent challenges are non-performing loans and the steps taken to merge some banks to restore discipline in the financial sector. These measures will take time to show results.

To quote Rabindranath again, there is a lot of philosophical thinking here. The budget makers have made a lot of assumptions for the new fiscal year. For example, agricultural and industrial production will be strong and contribute to economic growth. Growth in developed countries will stabilize in the medium term, which will boost exports for Bangladesh. The recently adopted policies will stabilize the taka exchange rate against the dollar. As the price of commodities falls in the world market and the exchange rate stabilizes in the local market, inflation in Bangladesh will decrease. As inflation decreases, consumption at the individual level will increase, leading to GDP growth.

With inflation and exchange rates stabilizing, import growth will return to a positive trend. It seems that policy interest rates are being kept at the highest level across the world and will ease in the medium term. This will help increase Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves. Due to various reform measures taken by the National Board of Revenue, revenue growth will accelerate and despite various global uncertainties, the growth trajectory for exports and remittances remains upward and will continue in the medium term.

Only if these assumptions prove correct, will the economic crisis be overcome. Most of the assumptions depend on the state of the global economy. So just as the finance minister relies on loans to implement the budget, he will have to rely on others to overcome the financial crisis. The question is how much planning has been done. French journalist, writer and pilot Antoine de Saint-Exupéry said. “A goal without a plan is just a wish.”

6 Total Views 6 Views Today
Spread the love

Similar Posts