The divergent interests and strategies make it clear that security in Asia is being viewed in opposing terms by key actors.
For influential players like the US, Australia or India, security means containing China or achieving dominance. The result is increased stress and the hub-and-spokes system is prone to excessive stretching. Whether the emerging new “safety net” will be enough to stabilize the sector is still unclear.
In some ways, the COVID pandemic has already demonstrated the dire consequences the outbreak of conflict in the region could take on the world, disrupting supply chains and battering the global economy.
The Ukraine war, in turn, shows the devastating effect that a war on Taiwan would have for Asia and the world. The world will be shaken.
* Rodion Ebbhausen is managing editor in DW’s Asia department