The next five years are likely to be marked by leadership continuity in both countries. This provides a unique opportunity to complete ongoing initiatives and projects and raise the level of ambition for greater integration. It is a relationship like any other, in which there will always be differences, unresolved issues and mismatched expectations. India should strive to broaden its engagement with all sections of Bangladeshi society and strengthen cooperation on security issues.
Military threats to each other do not exist. There are more complex things that do this. There are also domestic issues which can impact each other. With extensive experience gained and lessons learned, both sides must remain extra vigilant to prevent conflict. These arise from well-known harms such as the treatment of minorities, illegal migration, international crime, terrorism and insurgency.
Economic and trade relations should move towards greater stability with greater Indian investment and value addition in Bangladesh. Supply and value chains must be enhanced so that India can become an active partner in meeting Bangladesh’s development goals of increasing incomes and jobs, and Bangladesh is able to take advantage of the huge and growing Indian market and increase its exports. With declining foreign exchange reserves and inflation, Bangladesh is potentially headed for significant pressure on its external account. India will be called upon to play a role. One way to help Bangladesh would be to increase the share of trade denominated in rupees. Collaboration in the blue economy should become the next frontier. Connectivity should be further enhanced in energy, telecom, sea, river, air, road and rail sectors. Continuous improvement in border infrastructure and ease of travel is essential.