The Dallas Cowboys are set to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Monday Night Football, and while neither team has high playoff hopes, the game presents intriguing opportunities for bettors. With the Cowboys aiming to capitalize on recent momentum and the Bengals looking to shore up their defensive weaknesses, this matchup has plenty of storylines to explore.
Game Overview
The odds may not favor either team’s postseason aspirations — both have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). However, that doesn’t diminish the game’s betting appeal.
The Cowboys recently snapped a five-game streak of failing to cover the spread by securing two consecutive wins to close out November, including their first home victory of the season. They’ll face a Bengals squad that has proven reliable in betting markets on the road. Cincinnati boasts a 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) on the road and is undefeated ATS when favored in three games.
Quarterback Joe Burrow remains a bright spot for Cincinnati. He holds the NFL’s highest passing grade through Week 13, yet his stellar play has been overshadowed by a struggling Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks last in defensive EPA per play and holds the league’s lowest defensive grade since Week 8.
On the other hand, the Cowboys
defense has been revitalized thanks to the return of key players like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland. Over the past two weeks, Dallas ranks second in defensive EPA per play, setting the stage for an intriguing clash between Burrow’s dynamic offense and the Cowboys’ surging defense.
Key Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb presents a compelling betting opportunity with a receiving line set at 67.5 yards. While Lamb’s production has dipped due to the team’s quarterback transition to Cooper Rush, his potential for a breakout performance remains high.
Why Lamb is a Strong Bet
Despite the challenges with Rush under center, Lamb has been a target machine, ranking fifth in the NFL with 37 targets since Week 10. Volume remains a crucial factor in betting player props, and Lamb’s consistent involvement in the Cowboys’ passing game bodes well for bettors.
Additionally, the Bengals’ secondary has been a significant liability. Cincinnati ranks dead last in EPA per pass play allowed since Week 8 and has surrendered open targets on 58.6% of coverage snaps. The defense has also allowed a reception of 15 or more yards on 22.7% of coverage snaps, both of which rank in the bottom five in the NFL.
Recent Trends Support Lamb
Opposing wide receivers have repeatedly exploited Cincinnati’s secondary, with at least one receiver surpassing 67.5 receiving yards in each of the Bengals’ last six games. In their previous two matchups alone, Cincinnati allowed a combined 197 receiving yards to Pittsburgh’s George Pickens and Los Angeles’ Ladd McConkey. Lamb’s skill set and role as Dallas’ primary receiver make him a strong candidate to continue this trend.
Betting Lines and Odds
The Bengals are currently 5.5-point favorites, with the total set at 49.5 points. Here’s how each team stacks up:
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
- Strengths: Joe Burrow’s elite passing ability
- Weaknesses: Struggling secondary and poor defensive metrics
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5)
- Strengths: Improving defense led by Parsons and Bland
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent offensive production under Cooper Rush
Bettors should weigh Cincinnati’s strong offensive potential against their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly when facing a resurgent Dallas defense.
Best Bets and Predictions
- CeeDee Lamb Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-112): Lamb’s matchup against the Bengals’ porous secondary is one of the most attractive props for Monday Night Football.
- Bengals -5.5 ATS: Despite their defensive woes, Cincinnati’s ability to cover the spread on the road makes them a favorable pick.
- Total Over 49.5 Points: Both teams have shown vulnerabilities on defense, which could lead to a high-scoring affair.
Final Thoughts
While this game might not carry playoff implications, it offers plenty of excitement for bettors. The Cowboys’ recent surge and the Bengals’ struggles on defense create a compelling narrative. CeeDee Lamb’s potential for a standout performance is particularly enticing, given Cincinnati’s inability to contain opposing wide receivers.
Whether you’re looking to back Burrow’s offensive brilliance or trust Dallas’ improving defense, Monday Night Football promises to deliver an intriguing contest for fans and bettors alike.