prothom hello ,
I don't see Modi repeating 400 for NDA and 370 for BJP again and again. Rather it seems so. He has focused almost entirely on aggressive communal rhetoric after the first phase. Do you think this (1) claim of securing 370 seats out of 543 is baseless or did it initially have some substance but faded away as soon as voting began? (2) What does this communal campaign tell us?
Debashish Roy Choudhury: What has been observed about Indian voters is that they are mostly uncommitted voters, and they vote for candidates and parties that they feel have a good chance of winning – those candidates and parties As opposed to who they think should win. This is because they say they do not want to “waste” their vote. You must have seen that Indians consider their vote as their only weapon against the high and mighty. It's a great leveler and they don't like to throw it at a losing cause. Therefore, the more successful a party/candidate is in projecting victory, the better chance it has of actually attracting votes. You will remember that BJP's election slogan in West Bengal (Assembly elections) in 2021 was 'Target-200'. It was ridiculous to claim that they would get 200 seats because in reality they had only 3 seats at that time. But this guess was so successful that they got more than 70 seats. Many people thought it was a defeat for the BJP because their target was 200 but they got 70 plus, without thinking what a huge victory it was to go from 3 to 70 plus. And this was possible only because he assured the people that he would win the elections. So here too, it is “Aab ki baar 400 paar” (BJP alliance will cross the 400 seats mark) or “370 for BJP” etc. to create the environment in which they look like the clear winner so that people vote for them. Give.
The communal propaganda mainly tells us three things: 1) BJP has nothing much to show for 10 years in power. 2) Forget the wandering vote, BJP feels its core voters are also drifting away, so it has to dial back its communal rhetoric to retain them and, 3) It has no policy vision for India About which he can talk. The next logical step for the BJP is of course Hindu Rashtra, which would require sweeping changes to the Constitution. But this is not something that can be talked about and there is nothing else as a priority. So, we haven't heard much about what he actually wants to do in his third term.
prothom hello ,
How do you explain this decline in voting percentage in the first phase?
Debashish Roy Choudhury: Voters' apathy – deep disappointment with BJP but no tremendous enthusiasm towards the opposition either.
The big question is how angry are people? It's always hard to tell and varies regionally. Are they angry enough to vote against BJP? The heavy turnout could indicate this. Low turnout is not an indication that there is a strong willingness to vote for the BJP despite disillusionment. What this means is that dissatisfaction with the BJP – if any – is not translating into votes. But as I said, it's always hard to tell, and there are a lot of local factors involved, even if it's a national election. For example, voters in a state that is not ruled by the BJP have little reason to be disillusioned with the BJP and even less reason to blame the BJP for their troubles.