“For the time being, China’s peace efforts will remain at the level of rhetoric,” said Li Mingjiang, associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“It is hard to imagine China taking real action to mediate between Russia and Ukraine anytime soon… This is China’s small stance change, no concrete policy adjustments on the war,” he said.
To be sure, any serious move by China to resolve Europe’s bloodiest land war since World War II would be widely welcomed, but many diplomats and China watchers say When push comes to shove, China will stand by Russia.
That skepticism was reinforced in Moscow on Wednesday by a pledge by top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi that China seeks to “deepen” ties, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Xi would visit Moscow soon.
Since the war began weeks after Beijing and Moscow declared a “no borders” partnership, Xi has spoken regularly with Putin, but not once with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.
In 2022, China’s imports of Russian goods surged while trade with Ukraine plummeted.
Still, China is unlikely to provide military aid to Russia any time soon, at least not openly, experts and diplomats said.
Tong Zhao, a US-based nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “If Western military support to Ukraine makes Russia’s defeat more likely, the international community should expect China to make stronger efforts to prevent that outcome.” “
“China’s calculus is affected by the US’s attempt to draw a bright red line for China,” Zhao said, referring to the US warning on weapons. “Beijing is trying to strike a balance between stabilizing its relations with Washington and preventing a defeat for Moscow.”