“Domestic demand is still very weather sensitive, so we think the latter is a much stronger source of savings,” he added.
Unusually warm temperatures in late October and early November not only left people enjoying the sun in outdoor cafes like it was summer, but brought relief to European countries as they tried to build up gas stocks Was.
However, consumption has increased since mid-November as the cold has taken hold, increasing heating demand. Gas use in the last week of November was 18% below the long-term average and preliminary data from network operators suggests consumption has accelerated so far in December.
In addition to heating demand, gas use for electricity generation remains high as a record number of French nuclear reactors remain offline for maintenance and low wind levels affect alternative power supplies.
European countries have also attempted to cut their electricity consumption, which was 9% lower in November than the 2015-2021 average, according to grid operators’ data calculations.
Unusually mild autumn weather means countries haven’t needed to start tapping gas reserves until they usually do, leaving a cushion if winter proves colder than usual .
For example, Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the region’s industrial powerhouse, only began drawing on its reserves on November 17 and outflows have been small since then, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, an industry body for network operators. According to. Last year Germany started tapping the stocks on 1 November.
“The previous risk of physical energy shortages in Europe has been averted, but we still think that very high prices will impact both consumption and industrial production in the euro area,” said Kuus Babić.
While higher stock levels should help Europe get enough gas through the winter as long as it doesn’t get colder for too long, the gas supply crisis is unlikely to be fully resolved next year.
Analysts at Dutch bank ING said there is a risk that as gas prices ease, demand recovers, making it difficult to keep up with efforts to maintain cuts.