Northwest Europe is in the midst of a warm winter and gas inventories are at a record high after an extended period of exceptionally mild temperatures since mid-December.
Preparation and luck have teamed up to save Europe from a potential gas shortage this winter:
Preparations by policy makers and forward gas markets ensured that the winter season started at one of the highest levels on record.
Market-driven high prices have significantly reduced gas and electricity consumption by major industrial customers and modestly by residential and commercial users.
Luck in the form of exceptionally mild weather has turned comfortable stock in mid-December to bountiful inventory by mid-January.
In Frankfurt, Germany, a proxy for the mega-region of densely populated northwest Europe, half of winter demand occurs on or before January 15, on average.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventories”, GIE, 17 January), on 15 January, the amount of inventory in the European Union and the United Kingdom stood at 922 terawatt-hours (TWh).
Stocks were 268 TWh (+41% or +2.57 standard deviations) above the ten-year average, above a surplus of 173 TWh (+23% or +1.58 standard deviations) when the warm season started on 19 December and 92 TWh happened. (+10% or +0.86 standard deviations) on October 1 at the start of the winter season.
Heat demand started this winter close to the long-term average, with an unusually mild October offset by cooler-than-normal temperatures in the first half of December.
As of 19 December, Frankfurt had experienced a total of 675 heating degree days, very close to the long-term average of 682.
However, between 19 December and 15 January, the region experienced an exceptional and extended period of very warm temperatures, which significantly reduced heating demand.
Frankfurt experienced an additional 184 heating degree days, its fewest this century, and compared to a seasonal average of 341.