Bangladesh and India appear to be moving towards improvement in bilateral relations, with both sides signalling a thaw after months of strain that followed the ouster of the Awami League government in August 2024.
The first signal from India was External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s presence at the funeral of Khaleda Zia. Later, Indian Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla’s attendance at the oath-taking ceremony of the new cabinet, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s multiple messages to his Bangladesh counterpart Tarique Rahman, and an official invitation for a visit — all underscore Delhi’s intent to reset bilateral ties.
Meanwhile, the West Bengal police arrested three suspects in the killing of Inquilab Moncho spokesperson Sharif Osman Hadi.
Dhaka is also signalling positively to mend the ties, with Bangladesh missions in India resuming issuance of all categories of visas for Indian citizens in late February.
On March 20, Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Riaz Hamidullah called on Jaishankar, and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. It was Hamidullah’s first meeting with Indian ministers since his appointment in April 2025.
“Our conversation was focused on advancing our bilateral ties,” Jaishankar wrote on X, sharing an update on the meeting.
Hamidullah affirmed Dhaka’s readiness to work with Delhi for mutual benefits. He and Goyal discussed ways to deepen economic cooperation, advance the broader Bangladesh-India economic partnership, and address trade-related issues.
He also addressed senior military officers at the Indian Army’s War College in Madhya Pradesh on March 10, sharing his perspectives on the state of Bangladesh-India relations and ways to address existing issues.
Earlier, Kaiser Rashid Chowdhury, director general of Directorate General of Forces Intelligence, visited New Delhi from March 1 to 3, marking the first official visit of a Bangladeshi high-up since the BNP assumed office.
Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman is likely to meet Jaishankar and several other officials during his visit to India on April 7-8 before traveling to Mauritius to attend the Indian Ocean Conference.
With India emphasising a “forward-looking and people-centric” relationship, these developments indicate both sides’ readiness to renew relations, said Lailufar Yasmin, a professor of International Relations at Dhaka University.
The BNP policymakers seem to recognise the importance of maintaining good relations with neighbouring countries, especially India, she said.
However, foreign policy analysts caution that while the optics are positive, translating them into stable, long-term cooperation will require navigating domestic political pressures, deep-seated distrust, and addressing longstanding structural issues.
DOMESTIC PERCEPTIONS
In Bangladesh, it is widely perceived that India’s support helped the ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina hold onto power for long. This perception fuelled anti-India sentiment, and it may persist if India continues to shelter the ousted PM, said Prof Sreeradha Datta of the International Affairs Department at OP Jindal Global University in India.
Besides, issues such as border killings and water sharing have long been sources of public dissatisfaction, she noted.
Sreeradha further said the new government faces a complex domestic political landscape, as the Jamaat-e-Islami and the youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP) have emerged as vocal opposition forces, which are likely to monitor India-related issues closely.
Lailufar said the Indian media has spread massive misinformation and disinformation regarding communal issues in Bangladesh. Many Indian politicians make them big issues for political gains in their constituencies.
“Whether this trend will continue or not will largely depend on political engagement. If that is not done, things will not change,” she said, suggesting that both countries should make efforts to eliminate radical elements.
Meanwhile, the extradition of Hasina, who has been convicted in Bangladesh for crimes against humanity, remains a sensitive topic.
Sreeradha said LGRD Minister Fakhrul Islam Alamgir’s statement that Bangladesh-India relations will not hinge on Hasina’s extradition reflects the government’s willingness to advance bilateral ties.
Delwar Hossain, a professor of international relations at Dhaka University, said the BNP government’s phrases, such as “Bangladesh first” and “mutual respect”, reassure domestic audiences while signalling stability in foreign policy.
WATER SHARING
Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers, but only one formal agreement — the Ganges Water Treaty signed on December 12, 1996 — currently regulates water sharing between the two countries.
This treaty, which is set to expire in December this year, needs to be renewed. There have been competing claims over water allocation. West Bengal claims that Bangladesh receives more water through the Farakka Barrage than what was approved, while people in Bangladesh complain of water shortages.
Referring to the treaty, Lailufar said it is a technical matter that requires a close examination of data by experts.
“Bangladesh needs to work on it in a focused way… Renewal of the Ganges treaty will be a litmus test for India.”
There are also complications regarding the Teesta water-sharing agreement, which was stalled due to last-minute opposition from West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
With no breakthrough on the Teesta deal initially planned for 2011, Bangladesh has explored China’s support for river-dredging and water management projects.
China has agreed to implement the project, but India has expressed concerns due to the project’s proximity to the sensitive Siliguri Corridor.
While this has geopolitical implications, people in Bangladesh’s northern region are suffering from water scarcity in the dry season and flooding during the monsoon. There needs to be a solution; otherwise it could deepen the trust deficit, said Lailufar.
BORDER KILLINGS
Killings of Bangladeshi nationals by the Border Security Force (BSF) along the border continue to be an emotionally charged issue in Bangladesh.
According to Ain O Salish Kendra, a human rights organisation, at least 34 Bangladeshis were killed by the BSF last year, compared to 30 in 2024, 31 in 2023, 23 in 2022, and 18 in 2021.
If the two countries are to have good relations, these border killings must stop, said Lailufar.
On different occasions, India said these killings occur due to crimes like human trafficking and smuggling at night. The fact is that not only Bangladeshis, but also Indians are involved in such activities, she pointed out.
“There are problems on both sides… It requires cooperation between the two countries to address the problem.”
There should be an agreement restricting shoot-on-sight practices, and even if such actions are required, lethal weapons must not be used, Lailufar said.
Echoing her words, Datta noted that India must show sensitivity to issues that carry psychological weight in Bangladesh.
She further said New Delhi wants Dhaka’s assurance that Bangladesh’s territory will not be used for anti-Indian activities, especially in the Northeast.
The BNP government’s commitment that no terrorist activity will be tolerated on Bangladeshi soil is thus helpful, she added.
TRADE GAPS, CONNECTIVITY
India exports around $12 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh annually, while Bangladesh’s exports to India stand at only $2 billion, reflecting a persistent trade imbalance.
Trade relations between the two countries took a hit during the interim administration’s tenure as both sides imposed various restrictions.
Last year, India withdrew transshipment facility for Bangladesh, restricted the entry of certain Bangladeshi goods through land ports in northeastern states, and limited imports of jute products and woven fabrics to a single seaport.
On the other hand, Bangladesh halted the import of Indian yarn through major land ports.
Delwar said that both sides should withdraw these restrictions to normalise trade flows.
Bangladesh must focus on export diversification, and India should avoid non-tariff barriers that undermine trust, he noted.
Meanwhile, many of the projects that Bangladesh took up under Indian lines of credit since 2010 have been delayed due to bureaucratic red tape and conditionalities.
Experts said total commitments from India for these projects, involving mostly road, railway and waterway networks, have exceeded $7 billion.
Delwar said India benefits directly from connectivity projects, while Bangladesh’s gains are largely indirect, primarily through infrastructure development.
For Bangladesh, it is important to have access to markets in India’s northeast region and achieve the broader goal of linking the country with South and Southeast Asia, he pointed out.
He further said Bangladesh needs to negotiate better revenue mechanisms and conduct in-depth studies to maximise benefits from transit use and connectivity.
THE WAY FORWARD
Experts highlighted the importance of sustained, high-level engagement between the two countries not only for bilateral relations but also for regional cooperation.
Modi’s invitation to Tarique is a positive signal, Datta said, adding that a high-level meeting between the two neighbours would be a good start.
Lailufar said there should be at least a foreign-secretary-level meeting to start with.
Prof Delwar said that in the current global context, economic and security interdependence matters far more than ideological alignment.
“Both sides must focus on concrete steps to ensure that their relationship benefits citizens directly and helps build long-term trust,” he added.