“In an El Niño year, there are countries that are more likely to have bad harvests, for example in South and Southeast Asia,” said Walter Bethgen of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Last month, India, the world’s biggest rice exporter, restricted its exports due to crop damage from erratic monsoon rains.
According to the researchers, such actions are likely to have dire consequences for export-dependent countries such as Syria and Indonesia, which may face a “triple challenge” during El Niño.
“Rice harvests in those countries may be lower than normal, making it more difficult or less accessible to trade rice in the international market, and therefore resulting in higher rice prices,” Baithgen said.
“This combination of factors adds to the problems of food insecurity very quickly,” he said.