As the 2024 presidential election approaches, a common question looms: who will emerge victorious, and when will we know the outcome? While anticipation builds across the nation, the answers to these questions remain murky. Insights from history, along with information shared by Kamala Harris’ campaign, suggest that voters may face a prolonged wait for results—possibly days or even weeks after polls close on Tuesday night.
The Immediate Landscape of Election Night
Following the closure of polls, states will release unofficial results on Tuesday evening. These figures will serve as the basis for news networks and the Associated Press to project winners in most jurisdictions. However, election officials in key swing states—including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona—are urging voters to remain patient, as the process of counting ballots will extend beyond Election Day.
A Repeat of 2020?
Looking back to the 2020 election, a similar scenario unfolded. The Associated Press officially declared Joe Biden the winner over Donald Trump on November 7—four days after polls had closed nationwide. This delay was largely attributed to the counting processes in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, states that are expected to be focal points again this year.
A chart shared with the Daily Beast from Harris’ campaign indicates that while states like Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Florida are likely to have near-complete results by 10 p.m. EST on election night, the crucial states of Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan may not report most results until shortly before midnight. Wisconsin is projected to release results by 6 a.m. EST on Wednesday, but Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada may still only have partial results available.
Particularly noteworthy is Pennsylvania, where election officials have stated that “tens of thousands” of provisional ballots cannot be counted until Friday. This state is widely viewed as critical for both major party candidates, making the wait for final results particularly significant.
The Stakes of a Tight Race
Election administration expert Derek Tisler from the Brennan Center for Justice echoed the sentiment of a prolonged wait. He warned voters to prepare for a timeline reminiscent of 2020, noting that a tighter race could mean that the election’s winner might not be determined for several weeks—especially if results in pivotal states are closely contested, potentially within just a few thousand votes.
Factors Contributing to Delays
Several factors contribute to the anticipated delays in counting votes. In 2020, legal restrictions limited the processing of mail-in ballots in key states, and while some changes have been made, the situation remains largely unchanged. Tisler pointed out that the complexities involved in counting mail-in ballots remain, as they require thorough verification of voter identity and eligibility—similar to in-person voting.
Michigan has taken steps to facilitate faster counting by allowing mail-in ballots to be processed prior to Election Day, a change not yet implemented in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Arizona, while permitting pre-election processing, faces its own challenges due to lengthy ballots that could slow down the counting process. Reports indicate that ballots in Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populous region, are two pages long, complicating the counting process and increasing the likelihood of delays due to potential paper jams.
In Nevada, a unique mail-in ballot policy allows for ballots without a postmark that arrives by Friday to be counted, while those with a postmark can be accepted until Saturday. This is markedly different from the stricter deadlines observed in most states, which require ballots to be received by Election Day. Such a system could introduce significant delays, particularly if the election proves to be closely contested.
Risks of Misinformation
As the nation braces for a drawn-out election count, experts warn of the dangers that can arise from the uncertainty. Tisler highlighted the potential for chaos if various stakeholders—including voters, media outlets, candidates, or their representatives—attempt to fill the “information vacuum” with premature claims or declarations of victory.
“Everyone is eager to gain insights into the outcome of a matter that is deeply significant to them,” Tisler noted. “However, it is crucial to recognize that until the votes are counted, there is little new information to share.” He stressed the importance of patience and understanding that the delay is rooted in ensuring the accuracy and security of the electoral process.
The Path Forward
As we approach Election Day, voters need to stay informed and prepared for the possibility of waiting for results. The emphasis on patience and understanding underscores the importance of a thorough electoral process, one that prioritizes the integrity of the votes cast. While the uncertainty surrounding the timeline may be unsettling, the ultimate goal remains the same: to ensure that every vote is counted accurately.
In conclusion, while anticipation surrounds the 2024 presidential election, the timeline for knowing the results may be longer than many hope. History suggests that states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada may play pivotal roles in delaying the announcement of a winner. Voters are encouraged to remain patient and trust the electoral process, as officials work to ensure that the results reflect the will of the people. As we approach the final moments before polls close, one thing is clear: the next few days may test the resolve of voters and candidates alike, as the nation awaits the determination of its next president.