Five Highlights from the Recent B.C. Election

British Columbians are poised for a wait of at least a week before gaining clarity on the future of their provincial government, following a tightly contested election that saw a near-even split in voter support. The results highlight a significant shift in the political landscape, with several key takeaways emerging from the recent polling.

Who Won: The NDP or the Conservatives?

As the dust settles on election night, the New Democratic Party (NDP) has secured 46 seats to the Conservatives’ 45, with the NDP narrowly edging ahead in the popular vote by a slim margin of just 1.08 percent. However, the results remain tentative, as two ridings are set for automatic recounts due to the close nature of the vote—both Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat have margins within 100 votes. These recounts are scheduled to take place between October 26 and 28.

election results bc
Credit:i1.wp.com

The Green Party managed to retain its two seats from the previous election, but it came at a cost for party leader Sonia Furstenau, who lost her bid for a Victoria-area seat after changing ridings. Despite her defeat, Furstenau had advocated for voters to grant her party a balance of power, a prospect that may soon become a reality. As negotiations to form a government begin, it appears that whichever party takes the lead will likely need to court Green support to maintain stability.

What Happens Next?

In accordance with Elections BC rules, automatic recounts occur when the vote spread is less than 100 votes. Candidates in ridings with wider margins, such as Kelowna Centre, where the Conservative candidate leads by 142 votes, can still request a recount if the margin is less than 1/500 of the total ballots cast.

If the current seat count holds, both the NDP and the Conservatives will be keenly vying for Green Party support to establish a minority government. Additionally, one Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) must be appointed as Speaker, a position typically filled by a government representative, though this is not a hard and fast rule. Neither party can afford to lose an MLA for this critical role in a closely divided assembly.

A Familiar Scenario: Echoes of 2017

The results from this election resonate with the events of the 2017 provincial election when the then-Liberal Premier Christy Clark was denied a majority government. That election also unfolded over several weeks as recounts were conducted and absentee ballots were counted, ultimately leading to a three-party split: 43 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the NDP, and three for the Greens.

The political climate back then teetered on the brink of a constitutional crisis, as Clark attempted to deliver a Throne Speech but failed to convince the Lieutenant Governor of her ability to govern. The Greens ultimately chose to enter into a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP, which governed the province for more than three years. With this history in mind, the current results raise questions about the potential for coalition-building and the stability of the upcoming government.

Winners and Losers of the Night

One of the most notable winners of the election is John Rustad, the leader of the Conservative Party. Although he did not achieve a majority, Rustad successfully transformed a party that had not held power in British Columbia for nearly a century into a formidable contender, capturing nearly half of the available seats. Regardless of whether he secures an outright victory or assumes the role of the official opposition, Rustad can claim a historic campaign that has reshaped his party’s image.

Conversely, NDP leader David Eby faces a challenging landscape, having lost ground and potentially the ability to form a government. The New Democrats will need to reevaluate their strategy, particularly given their significant losses in Surrey, a critical urban area. The party also experienced the departure of key figures, including Nathan Cullen, an influential cabinet minister who spearheaded an unsuccessful attempt to reform Crown lands to incorporate First Nations decision-making.

The Conservatives’ success is illustrated by Brent Chapman’s decisive victory in Surrey South, where Rustad stood by Chapman despite his controversial remarks about Indigenous and Muslim communities. By leaving the decision to voters, Rustad’s gamble paid off, as a majority embraced Chapman’s candidacy.

Analyzing the Electoral Map

The election results have returned British Columbia to a more traditional rural-urban divide. The NDP has maintained a stronghold on several urban seats, particularly in areas like Burnaby, while the Conservatives have made substantial gains in rural regions. The Richmond and Surrey districts emerged as battlegrounds, with the NDP losing significant ground.

In Richmond, the seats were split between the NDP and Conservatives, reflecting the competitive nature of urban politics in the province. Meanwhile, the Conservatives managed to secure a majority of seats in Surrey, indicating a shift in voter preferences that could have lasting implications for future elections.

Conclusion

As British Columbians await the outcome of recounts and potential negotiations for government formation, the election results underscore a significant shift in the political landscape. The NDP and Conservatives remain neck-and-neck, while the Green Party stands poised to play a crucial role in determining the future of governance in the province. The next week will be pivotal as all eyes turn to the recounts and the ensuing discussions about coalition-building, setting the stage for an intriguing chapter in British Columbia’s political history.

Spread the love

We may earn a commission if you click on the links within this article. Learn more.