Here are some guesses:
over 2 million
Zhou Jiatong, head of the Center for Disease Control in the southwestern Guangxi region, said in a paper published last month by the Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine that mainland China faces more than 2 million deaths if it follows the same pattern as Hong Kong. loosens COVID restrictions. this year.
Their forecast suggests that infections could exceed 233 million.
In May, scientists in China and the United States estimated that if China abandons its tough zero-Covid policy without safeguards such as access to vaccinations and treatments, according to research published in Nature Medicine There is a risk of just over 1.5 million COVID deaths.
They estimated that based on worldwide data collected about the severity of the variant, the peak demand on intensive care would exceed capacity by 15 times, leading to approximately 1.5 million deaths.
However, the researchers, the lead author of whom was from Fudan University in China, said that if attention was paid to vaccination, the death rate could decrease rapidly.