Corn Cv1 and soybean Sv1 climbed to their highest levels in a decade, while Malaysia’s benchmark crude palm oil prices FCOc3 climbed to a record high in March.
Wheat prices have plummeted to pre-war levels and palm oil has plunged nearly 40% amid fears of a global recession, China’s COVID-19 restrictions and an extension of the Black Sea Corridor deal for Ukrainian grain exports .
What does this mean for 2023?
A severe drought is expected to reduce Argentina’s wheat crop by about 40%, while floods in Australia, the world’s second-biggest wheat exporter, have caused widespread damage to the crop ready for harvest in recent weeks.
This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.
A lack of rain in the US plains, where winter crop ratings are running at their lowest since 2012, could impact supplies in the second half of the year.
Traders said prices for rice are expected to remain high as long as export duties imposed by the world’s biggest supplier India earlier this year remain in place.
“Availability of rice is very low in most of the exporting countries except India, but export duty has been imposed to reduce sales,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company.
“If we get a production shock in any of the top exporting or importing countries, that could really turn the market upside down.”
The outlook for corn and soybeans in South America looks bright for its harvest as early as 2023, although a recent drought in parts of Brazil, the world’s top bean exporter, has raised concerns.
US domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to slow through 2023, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
The agency is forecasting US corn supplies to fall to a decade low ahead of the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat stocks are expected to be at their lowest in 15 years. Have an estimate.
Palm oil, the world’s most commonly consumed edible oil, is being hit by tropical storms in Southeast Asia, where high costs have led to low use of the fertilizer.
Nevertheless, higher prices for grains and cereals have encouraged farmers to plant more crops in some countries, including India, China and Brazil.