In that case, one possible path would be to wait for a second mass uprising – an idea that many within the party consider unrealistic. Another possibility being discussed is the emergence of deep divisions between the future BNP government and opposition forces like Jamaat and NCP. But so far, that scenario doesn’t seem to have any strong footing either.
As a result, some leaders feel that the current politics of the Awami League has become largely directionless.
Under such circumstances, some within the party believe that many Awami League leaders at the local level may cross over to other political parties for political survival ahead of the local government elections.
Discussions with several Awami League leaders through various channels reveal that after 13th After parliamentary elections in February, Sheikh Hasina repeatedly told party leaders and workers that those who wanted to remain in politics should return to the country – meaning they should face arrest, trial and imprisonment if necessary.
However, no one has responded to that call yet.
Party leaders say that there is no guarantee of getting bail after returning and going to jail. Nor is there any sign of any understanding or initiative on the part of the government that would provide any concessions to the Awami League.
Several sources also said that party leaders do not believe that there is any international pressure on the government to politically revive the Awami League.
In such a situation, the leaders present abroad are not considering returning home. In fact, some people have moved to other countries partly to escape the pressure of returning to Bangladesh after spending long periods in India.
According to party sources, one influential former MP has moved to Malaysia, while the other has moved to Cyprus. They fear that if relations between India and the future BNP government improve, India will no longer be a safe option for them.
The Awami League remained in power for more than 15 and a half years before being ousted from power during the student-led mass uprising of 2024. Since then, party chief Sheikh Hasina and several senior leaders have gone into hiding abroad, while a large number of leaders and workers are in jail inside the country.
The interim government banned the party’s activities, and the BNP government has not lifted that ban. As a result, the Awami League has not only lost state power but also its organizational strength, political status and control over the streets.