In a major speech nearly a year after his invasion of Ukraine, Putin said Russia was not abandoning the New START treaty – the accord signed in 2010 that limits the number of Russian and US deployed strategic nuclear weapons.
But nuclear experts said there is no provision in the treaty for either side to “suspend” their participation, as they said Moscow was doing – they only have the option of backing out.
Putin said Russia would restart discussions only after French and British nuclear weapons were also taken into account – analysts said this was a non-starter, as it was opposed by Washington and required full compliance with the treaty. Rewriting will be required.
William Alburke, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia had decided it could live without New START, but was trying to pin the blame on Washington.
“They have already calculated that the treaty will expire. An attempt will be made to estimate the actual damage inflicted on the United States,” he said in a telephone interview.
The treaty effectively limits the number of warheads per missile that either side can deploy, so its demise could lead to warhead numbers multiplying, Albert said.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,428.
“Both sides could go from 1,550 deployed tactical weapons to 4,000 immediately — that could happen overnight,” Alburq said.
He added that this is potentially destabilizing because it creates a “use or lose” dilemma in which a denser concentration of an opponent’s weapons presents a more attractive target.