To understand the potential impact of the shutdown, it is important to look at the import structure. In the 2024-25 financial year, BPC spent Tk 50,195 crore to import 6.215 million tonnes of fuel. Of this, 1.51 million tonnes (about 24 percent) was crude oil, while the remaining 76 percent consisted of refined fuel, which is directly usable.
In this context, Bangladesh’s fuel supply now largely depends on imported refined products. Therefore, even if Eastern Refinery production is temporarily halted, the risk of immediate major shortages of fuels such as diesel or furnace oil is relatively low.
However, refinery sources say that by refining 100,000 tonnes of crude oil, about 40,000 tonnes of diesel, 15,000-20,000 tonnes of petrol and octane and about 30,000 tonnes of furnace oil can be produced. As a result, a significant portion of petrol and octane still depends on domestic refining. If production remains suspended for a long time, it could create pressure on transportation and consumers.