6.
In its April update on Bangladesh, the World Bank highlighted several specific risks posed by the Iran war:
Higher energy prices could increase the current account deficit to about 1 percent of GDP;
Inflation could rise by at least 0.5 percentage points;
Industrial growth may slow, exports may weaken, and rising imports may worsen the trade balance;
Remittances could come under pressure, potentially pushing nearly 16 lakh people below the poverty line by 2026-27;
Government expenditure could increase by about 0.8 percentage points of GDP, bringing public debt to about 46.3 percent of GDP.
Finally, the report warns that the already fragile banking sector could weaken further, leading to less investment and weaker job creation.
Overall, the economy is once again facing a serious test. Bangladesh is under stress since the Covid-19 pandemic and the responsibility of dealing with this crisis is now on the BNP government.