prothom hello ,
What threat does the current crisis in Myanmar pose to Bangladesh? What could be the strategic stance of Bangladesh in this situation?
imdadul islam: In this situation, the biggest threat to Bangladesh is the conflict in Rakhine and the instability arising from it. The main challenge for Bangladesh will be to maintain its interests amid geopolitical tensions between the two big neighbours.
In future, anyone can use the Rohingyas taking shelter in Bangladesh to create a threat to the security here. Under such circumstances, it is imperative for Bangladesh to use strategic and diplomatic foresight in its effort to restore stability in Rakhine. This effort could also open the doors for the return of the Rohingyas.
prothom hello ,
Many are of the opinion that the Bangladesh government should make efforts to open channels of communication with the Arakan Army and other fighting groups. This is important for the future of Rohingya repatriation. How reasonable are such arguments?
imdadul islam: There are numerous conflict groups in Myanmar. Important among these are Aung San Suu Kyi’s NUG, Shan National Army, Karen Liberation Army and Arakan Army. The Arakan Army is engaged in fighting with the Myanmar army in Arakan, or Rakhine, bordering Bangladesh. Bangladesh has still not involved itself in Myanmar’s internal affairs or geopolitics.
Bangladesh has contact with Myanmar government. Bangladesh maintains communication with the Government of Myanmar on state relations, diplomatic communications, trade and commerce and resolution of the Rohingya crisis. However, given the current changed circumstances in Myanmar, Bangladesh may establish communication with the Arakan Army indirectly for practical purposes. However, while taking such a step, China’s involvement with the Arakan Army and India’s adversarial relations with it should also be kept in mind.
The Arakan Army’s geo-strategic ties with the Kachin Independent Army, Wa and Ta’ang Army, through the Northern Alliance or the current Friendship Alliance, should also be taken into account. But considering the overall situation, it is not yet time to show any coolness in communication with the current military junta of Myanmar or openly establish communication with rebel groups. Intelligence could be used to communicate with the Arakan Army, but not through diplomatic channels.