$28.5 trillion market opportunity
For all the excitement surrounding the IPO, determining how much SpaceX is actually worth remains a difficult valuation exercise.
SpaceX said its market opportunity spans $28.5 trillion, the largest in human history. With its leading position in space – the firm says its operations have accounted for more than four-fifths of the mass launched into orbit over the past three years – and revenue from Starlink, some investors said it has a strong foundation on which to build.
John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said the best comparison to SpaceX is Musk’s electric vehicle company Tesla TSLA.O because each has an established business and “there’s a tremendous opportunity on the other side.”
“For Tesla, it’s things like humanoid robotics and other future applications. For SpaceX, it’s the AI business,” he said.
With revenues of $18.7 billion in 2025, the company’s market cap puts its price-to-revenue ratio at a lofty 94. Some analysts have already issued positive ratings on the company. Morningstar analysts this month said its fair value is about $780 billion, and CFRA initiated coverage with a sell rating on Friday.
“This is not a name you’re buying based on fundamentals. To me, the analogy is Amazon. This was a company that changed the way we live,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments. “If the stock drops to $100, it’s not ideal, but it won’t change our long-term view. We want to participate.”