Esmerlyn Valdez will almost certainly not keep up his recent superhuman pace, but that’s no reason to avoid him. We can’t simply trigger the regression alarm whenever a guy begins playing a little too well. Valdez has been as scorching-hot as any hitter in the game who isn’t Junior Caminero, so he can regress a fair amount and still remain incredibly useful.
When a guy has concourse power, he probably isn’t a total fraud:
Esmerlyn Valdez hits one 461 FEET!
Look at where this baseball lands 😳 pic.twitter.com/gHJcOznQAb
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2026
Entering Monday, Valdez has gone 20-for-47 with four home runs, 10 extra-base hits and 12 RBI over his previous 13 games for the Pirates, which is, of course, silly and unsustainable. For the year, he’s slashing .310/.359/.662 at the big-league level with six homers in just 78 plate appearances. He wasn’t quite as dominant at Triple A earlier in the season, but he was definitely cooking (.914 OPS). We shouldn’t expect him to completely nosedive any time soon.
In the near-term, Valdez has an uncluttered path to daily at-bats with both Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz sidelined by injury. If the 22-year-old continues crushing — even at a less cartoonish level — he’ll stick around. In recent games, he’s occupied the cleanup spot for Pittsburgh. He remains lightly rostered at the major platforms, however, despite his obnoxious power upside and a friendly late-July schedule. He gets a few user-friendly pitching rotations following the break, including the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Reds.
Kahlil Watson appears to have the green light
Watson stole a pair of bags in back-to-back games against the White Sox over the weekend, which gives him six on the season in MLB, plus another 15 at Triple-A Columbus. The 23-year-old has gone 13-for-43 over his past dozen games for Cleveland with four extra-base hits, so he’s obviously beginning to get comfortable. Watson hasn’t hit for average at any minor-league stop, but he’s a willing walker with on-base ability and 20-HR/20-SB (20/30?) potential. He’s a deep league outfield add with obvious upside.
Joshua Báez is gonna break some International League records
To be clear, Báez should not actually be allowed to break any minor-league records, because he should be promoted before any of them are within easy reach. But the Cardinals seem content with his pursuit of the modern single-season International League home run mark. Báez has launched 28 bombs for Memphis in just 76 games, so he needs only 14 additional homers with the Redbirds to match Phil Hiatt’s record of 42, established in 1996. If he clears the fence another 22 times, he can tie Ron Kittle’s single-season Triple-A record across all leagues (50, 1982).
Joshua Báez take sole possession of the MiLB HR lead with his 27th long ball of the season at Triple-A 🚀@memphisredbirds | @CardsPlayerDev | @Cardinals pic.twitter.com/OKj3lecJiR
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 3, 2026
Báez certainly isn’t a flawless hitter — he’s already reached triple-digit Ks for the season — but he’s nonetheless the most interesting power/speed combo player in the high minors. Keep him stashed, just in case he finds his way to St. Louis sometime soon.
Alas, the Jesus Lúzardo buy-low window may have finally closed
Lúzardo has lowered his season ERA from 4.56 to 3.75 over his past five starts, allowing just six earned runs and 22 hits over 30.1 innings while striking out 45 batters. He’s had the same filthy stuff all season, but the expected ERA has been dramatically out of sync with his actual pitching ratios. Even now, his xERA is 3.05 and his xFIP is 2.97. He’s striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings and is clearly capable of shaming the game’s best hitters.
Again, if you haven’t already initiated the conversation, you might be a week too late to target Lúzardo via trade. Still, it could be worth kicking the tires. He’s likely facing the Reds and Mets in his next two starts.
Caleb Kilian, locked in closer, is available basically everywhere
Hey, maybe Kilian actually should be lightly rostered across the fantasy landscape. It’s not entirely clear that he won’t eventually detonate. He’s allowed runs in three of his past four appearances.
Kilian is the no-doubt closer for the Giants these days, however, having converted the team’s past four saves. He’s neither a committee member nor a placeholder. Killian is simply the dude who now owns the ninth, yet he’s only 12% rostered in Yahoo leagues and 33% at Fantrax. You cannot leave him unattached in any competitive league.
One last round of streaming options before the All-Star break
Let’s close out the first half with responsible two-start streaming selections, friends. Most of the best pitchers in baseball seem to be taking two turns this week ahead of the break, including Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Jacob deGrom, Cristopher Sanchez, Max Meyer and Zack Wheeler. But don’t worry, we still have plenty of sketchy options from which to choose, like this first gentleman …
- Joey Cantillo, CLE (at MIN, at MIA) — Cantillo is the prize among this week’s widely available two-start options. His matchups aren’t all that intimidating, and his recent performance has been excellent. Cantillo has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts, punching out 26 batters in 24 frames.
- Shane Drohan, MIL (at STL, at PIT) — It kinda feels like Milwaukee has a 3D printer that spits out guys like Drohan whenever one is needed. Naturally, Drohan has been extremely effective across his six recent starts, piling up 31 Ks over 30.1 innings while delivering a 3.56 ERA. He’s yielded just three runs over his past three appearances. This week’s opponents shouldn’t scare you off.
- Reynaldo López, ATL (vs. NYM, at STL) — Regardless of his role, López has been useful for Atlanta this season. He’s coming off an outing against the Cards in which he punched out six batters over five innings, allowing just two hits.
- Michael McGreevy and Dustin May, STL (vs. MIL, vs. ATL) —The assignments seem a little rough, but McGreevy is a savvy groundballist who almost never gets pummeled. He carries a 1.11 WHIP and 3.12 ERA into Monday’s matchup with the Brewers. May is perhaps more of a roller coaster, but his best starts are absolutely dazzling.
- Seth Lugo, KC (at NYM, at BAL) — Man, whenever Lugo retires, he can head straight for the “Weekly Two-Start Streamer” Hall of Fame. He’s lined up to face a pair of beatable opponents. The vet has produced 10 quality starts this season, so he’s holding up his end of the bargain, even when the Royals lineup does not.