weak supply lines
When the United States first sent HIMARS launchers in June, it supplied rockets with a range of 77 km (48 mi). This was a major boost for the Ukrainian military, allowing it to destroy Russian ammunition and weapons storage facilities.
Military experts say that once Ukraine has the new glide bombs, Russia will need to push its supplies even further.
“We are currently unable to reach Russian military facilities more than 80 kilometers away,” said Oleksandr Musienko, a Ukrainian military analyst. “If we can practically reach them as far as the Russian border, or as far as the occupied Crimea, it will certainly reduce the offensive capability of the Russian army.”
Importantly, Ukraine will soon be able to access every point on the overland route to occupied Crimea via Berdyansk and Melitopol. This would force Russia to redirect its supply trucks to the Crimea bridge, which was badly damaged in an attack in October.
“Russia is using Crimea as a major military base from where it sends reinforcements to its troops on the southern front,” Musienko said. “If we had 150 km (ammo), we could reach it and disrupt the logistics connection with Crimea.”
Beyond logistical implications, the addition of long-range weapons to Ukraine’s arsenal could help shake Russian confidence.
Tom Karako, a weapons and security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that while Ukraine would benefit from a longer-range weapon, the GLSDB “is a really important step forward to give Ukrainians long reach and keep the Russians guessing.” “
No ATACMS – Yet
For the Biden administration, the decision to send the GLSDB to Ukraine represents a step toward meeting Ukraine’s demand for the 185-mile (297 km) range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile, which the administration has now Has refused to provide till, there is a possibility of further increase. Escalation of conflict
Glide bombs, though not as powerful, are much cheaper, smaller, and easier to deploy than ATACMS, which makes them well suited for what Ukraine hopes to accomplish: disrupt Russian operations and gain a strategic advantage. Make
Still, Karako said, it is possible that the Ukrainians could obtain even more long-range weapons in the future.
“Over and over again, we’ve seen administrations say they will go up to a certain point, but not beyond that,” he said. “Then, as the situation worsened, they really found the need to move.”
HIMARS, the Patriot missile defense system, and, in the case of this month, Abrams tanks, were all initially off-limits to Ukraine before the administration approved the shipment.
But for now, the focus will be on how quickly the new glide bombs can arrive in Ukraine, Zagorodnyuk said.
“If they accelerate it … it could drastically change the situation on the battlefield.”