prothom hello ,
Despite pressure from America, elections have been held and Awami League has returned to power for the fourth consecutive time. How do you see Dhaka-Washington relations in the coming days?
Michael Kugelman: I believe the US government will want to be very careful about how it pursues its policy with Bangladesh after the election. There is increasing awareness about the strategic importance of Bangladesh. I think this is a result of great power competition. The US-China competition is now underway across South Asia, including Bangladesh. Even though Bangladesh’s relations with India are very strong, Bangladesh has increased its commercial and trade relations with China in recent years. Russia is also more present in Bangladesh than before. So I think the US realizes that you can’t do anything that risks pushing Bangladesh closer to China or closer to Russia.
Additionally, trade relations between the US and Bangladesh have expanded. The US is particularly important for Bangladesh as the US is the top export destination for Bangladesh. We are seeing extensive trade and investment cooperation between the US and Bangladesh and this is important from the US perspective. It does not want China to get too much benefit in terms of its investment and presence there. In strategic and commercial cooperation, I think the US wants to pursue it against the backdrop of increasing power competition.
prothom hello ,
Talking about the policy of Biden administration, it is strongly pursuing the agenda of democracy. In comparison, the Trump administration did not push the democracy agenda as vigorously. So why is the Biden administration so relentlessly pushing the democracy agenda?
Michael Kugelman: First, a clarification – it’s easy to forget, but you actually had this democracy promotion policy pushed forward by the Trump administration, not as strongly as during the Biden administration, but it was there.
When you had Trump era ambassadors to Bangladesh, especially Marcia Bernicutt who was there during the Trump era, you had messages from the US Embassy emphasizing rights and democracy and free and fair elections. So this is not completely unexpected. There is some degree of policy continuity between Biden and Trump. It’s just that it’s happening more now. So why are we seeing so much focus on rights, democracy, and elections from the Biden administration?
There are many factors involved. For one thing, the Biden administration has made rights and democracy a major focus of its foreign policy. I would also argue that despite what I was saying earlier how the US continues to view Bangladesh as an important strategic location. It’s clearly important enough for America to be concerned about rights and democracy, concerned enough to be focused on.
My sense is that American officials think that they can actually successfully help bring about outcomes that lead to greater rights and democracy. And that’s because, from an American perspective, you’re not trying to create something out of thin air here. Bangladesh has democratic traditions, it has democratic institutions, it has had democratic successes, and I think from an American perspective that means there is a precedent, a baseline. In a country where these traditions are there, promoting democracy is not as difficult as in countries where there has never been democracy.
prothom hello ,
When Ambassador Haas recently met Foreign Minister Hassan Mahmood in his first courtesy call, he made a statement that his focus was more on expanding and deepening relations. So is there any indication that there is any kind of adjustment in policy on the part of the State Department with respect to relations with Bangladesh?
Michael Kugelman: As we can see from the messages coming from the State Department, including the initial response to the election, they will continue to focus on issues of rights and democracy.
He would like to continue to make Bangladesh a test case for US foreign policy. Also they are going to focus on strategic ideas and building partnerships for America to counter China, do more trade with Bangladesh etc. This is not a new thing. And I would argue that, if you go back several years, there has been a focus on balancing the value side of the relationship with more strategic consideration. You go back to the Trump era and you will read policy documents kept by the Pentagon in the State Department about the US Indo-Pacific strategy, and Bangladesh is mentioned in those documents. There was a lot of discussion on how Bangladesh is a key partner in the Indo-Pacific on various issues, from terrorism to combating piracy and many more.
We may see a type of imbalance where the value-based components of the relationship will receive less importance than the strategic-based components of the relationship. But I think you’re going to see that dual focus.