Why does NATO want Sweden and Finland?
Both have relatively strong armies. Finland has the capacity to mobilize 285,000 personnel and 650 tanks. Sweden has a strong air force and a submarine fleet adapted to the conditions in the Baltic Sea. Strategically, the two countries fill a hole in NATO’s front line against Russia while enabling the alliance to project power in the Baltic region.
Can Finland join without Sweden?
Technically, yes, but without strategic land access through Sweden it would be difficult for NATO to defend Finland.
Sweden and Finland want to move forward together, but with Turkish anger primarily directed at Sweden, Finland may eventually lose patience with the process. The Foreign Minister of Finland and the Prime Minister of Sweden have stated that joint membership is a priority and that Finland will consider a different path only if Sweden’s membership is permanently blocked by Turkey.
Could NATO Expel Turkey, Allow Sweden and Finland to Join?
NATO’s founding document has no formal mechanism for the suspension or expulsion of members, and Turkey is considered an important strategic ally.
what happens now?
Analysts expect the accession process to be stalled at least until Turkey’s elections are out of the way.
Still, progress can be slow. Full implementation of the Madrid Agreement could take years, and Sweden has said some of Turkey’s other demands are impossible to meet.
Turkey’s national security concerns will not be easily appeased, and Sweden and Finland’s ability to influence developments is modest.
But Sweden, Finland and NATO want to avoid a long drawn-out process.
Levin said, “Turkey’s actions now benefit Putin and … that should be problematic for the entire coalition.”
