“Avatar” was seen as one of the gems from Disney’s $71 billion purchase of 21st Century Fox assets in 2019, a property it could elevate to franchise level with Star Wars and Marvel. Cameron has already filmed the third installment of “Avatar” and part of the fourth.
The director added that it was a “very valid concern” that audiences may no longer care about “Avatar”. But for him, those concerns disappeared when the first “The Way of Water” trailer in May racked up 148 million views in 24 hours, he said.
“What worries me is that the market is contracting,” he said, “due to the double punch of streaming and the pandemic.”
This year’s US and Canadian box office receipts are down 34% from 2019 levels.
In “The Way of Water,” actors Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldana return after 10 years as Jake Sully and Neytiri, now parents to five children.
Their peaceful life is interrupted when the Sky People, the Na’vi name for humans, return to go after Jake. The Sully family seeks refuge with the marine Metakayna clan and must quickly learn the ways of the water in order to survive.
This time, the 3D will feature giant whale-like creatures, large flying fish and other animals that fill Pandora’s seas.
However, in the mid-2010s moviegoers were tired of 3D. Some did not like wearing 3D glasses, or objected to paying a 3D ticket surcharge. Now, only Marvel superhero movies and a few others come to theaters with the 3D option. Robbins said only 10% of ticket buyers choose that format.
For “The Way of Water,” moviegoers will have a choice of 3D or traditional 2D.
Robbins is optimistic, he said, because Cameron “is known for delivering on his big bets. He always has a good feel for the audience he’s looking for.”
On opening weekend, Robbins predicted that “The Way of Water” would gross at least $150 million in domestic theaters. Two-thirds of its total box office earnings are expected to come from outside the United States.
Robbins said the final tally would hinge largely on China. While the original film was a hit with Chinese audiences and the sequel has been approved to run there, many theaters in China remain closed under the government’s “zero-Covid” policy.
